The Truth Behind Bolton’s Defence This Season
It is no secret that Bolton haven’t been at their brilliant best so far this season, after nine games they sit 14th and some fans appear uncertain that Evatt is the man to take the Wanderers into the Championship. However even in their victories this season, one issue has remained prevalent: Bolton are conceding far too many goals. The season has barely started and Ian Evatt’s side have conceded two or more goals in all competitions, eight times.
Promotion has to be the target for the former Premier League side this season, but defensive numbers like this make it almost impossible to achieve anything over than midtable. Something has to improve, and fast.
What Do The Statistics Say?
The Wanderers are only nine games into the EFL League One season and have conceded 15 goals, which equates to 1.7 goals conceded per game. This puts them 18th in the league for goals conceded on average per game however, they shouldn’t have conceded this many. Expected goals against is a metric used to determine the quality of the opposition's chances and, how many goals they should’ve scored. Bolton Wanderers have an XGA of just 9.1 this season, this is the sixth-best in the league and if they had performed as expected, they would have conceded six fewer goals.
Another key metric for a team’s defensive performances is saves per 90, this includes games where Baxter has played and games where Southwood has deputised instead. They have made 2.3 saves per game, this places them 16th out of the 24 teams in the league but that doesn’t tell the entire story. Good teams often don’t face many shots a game because they have been so dominant, therefore the goalkeeper doesn’t have to make too many saves but this hasn’t been the case for the Wanderers. In the league this season, they have conceded an average of four shots on target per game, this leaves 1.7 of those shots destined for goal if not for a last-ditch block.
What Happened to Bolton’s High Press?
Last season Bolton Wanderers had the best PPDA in League One - this is a statistic that measures the strength of a press and how long you let the other team have the ball. On average, they only let the opposition make 10.1 passes before they won the ball back; unfortunately, this stat isn’t available this season but the press is still poor. Bolton rank bottom for possession won in the final third per match in the league this season, with just 2.3, perhaps this is because of the change in formation.
The switch to the 3-4-2-1 system at the beginning of the season didn’t prove successful, it had many issues and one of those was the pressing structure. Players appear unclear who to mark and the front three are not sure when to press or when to sit in.
The screenshot above shows the first issue with pressing this season, this is taken from the cup game against Mansfield. McAtee, Adeboyejo, and Arfield were the front three in this game but they don’t press anything like last season. Adeboyejo chooses to mark the centre-back and gives the goalkeeper time to play it forward, McAtee is also too deep and allows the centre-back too long on the ball. Osei-Tutu has pushed so high that he is marking a full-back who has inverted into defence, and Arfield has been drawn inside and is marking the defensive midfielder. This is erratic and creates a lot of space deeper in the pitch, and the situation does not improve.
The right centre-back has an easy pass to the right-back because McAtee was so deep, and not covering a passing lane (a crucial part of a defensive structure when a team chooses not to press). Randell Williams (the left wing-back in this game) is also too deep and the Mansfield player has time to play a pass before Williams arrives. Morley has pushed high to mark the other Mansfield defensive midfielder and Matete has to cover the entire centre of the pitch on his own. Just off-screen, the Bolton defence are all man-marking an opposition player and this leaves no room for any individual mistakes, but of course, there have been many this season.
How Do Bolton Improve?
Playing a man-to-man system is possible and can work but it relies on everybody being perfect for a full game, everyone understanding their own role completely, and everyone understanding everybody else's roles as well. To become successful again, Evatt should go back to basics and switch to more of a mid-block system where Bolton first get into their shape before pressing the opposition. This means they wouldn’t concede as many goals based on individual errors and the team can focus more on their attacking strategies in training, instead of constantly reviewing the same mistakes defensively.
In a basic sense, this would look like this (ignore the numbers), while this type of system would give the opposition more time, it also gives the Bolton players more of a chance of getting into shape and not conceding goals on individual mistakes. A midblock also creates many pressing triggers, this is an event that tells the players to begin pressing, one common trigger is when a ball is passed wide.
When the ball is on the right-hand side, this is how Bolton should look to setup. Before pressing the ball, the team look to cover the passing lanes and limit the options for the player on the ball. A long ball is possible but is high risk and the time in the air gives Bolton players time to move over, after blocking the passing lanes the players can then press the ball from the front and look to win it back.
This would be quite different to what Bolton have been like under Ian Evatt but this would make them a lot more solid defensively and could make for an easier transition to the Championship if they do get promoted. Should they stick or twist?